Hard times create strong men,
Strong men create good times,
Good times create weak men,
Weak men create hard times.
So where are we now? It is interesting to see the reactions and dynamics of the impact of Covid 19 on the markets and the economy as a whole. I was in the UK during SARs and had little care of what was happening in on a local level, nor in the markets nor on an economic scale. My mind back then was in “lala land” and booze. To be out in South East Asia and see the real life impacts of Covid 19 is interesting to say the least. The rush for goods and medical supplies, the real life scarcity, the different policies of governments, the fear, the emotional reactions and the surge in information (and fake news too) surrounding Covid 19. Reading about history and actually living it, are two very different experiences.
For me, I believe it is one of the most exciting times to be in the markets and in business. Lots of volatility and movements. From my perspective there were already cracks in certain markets. The current (and unfortunate) situation of Covid 19 and the crash in Oil pricing, has been an accelerant to the extreme market and business conditions.
Between various business associates and fellow traders we have been discussing the implications of the Covid 19 and Oils Trade war. All we can do is think in probabilities and place bets on those probabilities. Maybe in a later post I’ll thoughts on the economic and market impacts.
You don’t win by predicting the future; you win by getting the odds right. – Will Bonner.
One thing that I found was the preparations (or lack of) for harder times in the economy. Amongst them, the majority only prepared for good times and their cash flow is now unsurprisingly feeling tighter and stress levels higher. A rare handful, were prepared and took decisive actions to navigate to safe grounds and opportunities. Protect your capital in both business and trading; it’s your life line, without cash or with less cash, your moves are limited. Especially in times like these, you have to think clearly and act decisively to manoeuvre the choppiness of the markets.
P.S. Stay safe, wash your hands regularly, rest well, drink lots of water.